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Population

Migration Gains Offsets Natural Loss to Fuel Rural Population Gain Kenneth Johnson*, Kenneth Johnson,

Demographic trends in rural America have been impacted by the shock of the COVID Pandemic as well as recent economic, social, and environmental turbulence. Between 2010 and 2020 rural America lost residents for the first time in history, both because more people left rural areas than moved to them and because the excess of births over deaths dwindled. In contrast, despite the onset of the pandemic, the rural population grew between 2020 and 2024. This recent population gain occurred even though rural deaths exceeded births by a substantial margin due to a significant increase in mortality during the pandemic. Migration accounted for the entire recent rural population gain. This large net migration gain offset the growing excess of deaths over births fostered by Covid-19 and the aging of the rural population. The rural population gain between 2020 and 2024 was smaller than the metropolitan population gain, but was an improvement compared to the rural population loss of the prior decade.  Nearly 82 percent of rural counties experienced more deaths than births during the period, the most in history. In contrast, 65 percent had net migration gains, nearly twice as many as in the preceding decade. Population gains were greatest in nonmetropolitan counties adjacent to metro areas and in recreational and retirement destination counties.