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Climate Change and Migration: Evidence from Western Alaska Ayse Akyildiz*, Ayse Akyildiz, Guangqing Chi,

This study examines how climate and environmental change shape migration intentions in rural and remote communities in Western Alaska, an Arctic context often treated as a critical testing ground for environmental migration theories. Empirical evidence of climate-driven migration in the Arctic remains limited, despite rapid warming and growing threats to infrastructure, livelihoods, and subsistence systems. Using survey data and semi-structured interviews, we test three mechanisms through which environmental change may influence decisions to migrate: (1) risk appraisal, (2) livelihoods and household risk diversification, and (3) habitability. Each mechanism is evaluated in a two-stage framework that distinguishes between intentions to migrate and the escalation of migration intentions in seriousness. We further assess whether prior migration experience conditions the translation of environmental risk and material impacts into mobility intentions, consistent with aspirations–capabilities perspectives on (im)mobility. By integrating multiple mechanisms within a single empirical design and grounding the analysis in Arctic Indigenous communities’ perspectives, this study moves beyond deterministic narratives of “climate migration”. The findings clarify when environmental change translates into mobility pressures, for whom, and through which social and material mechanisms, with implications for climate adaptation planning, infrastructure investment, and community-led resilience strategies in Arctic regions.