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Rural Policy

How rural residents conceptualize (im)mobility in relation to chronic coastal flooding: comparing the cases of Carteret County, North Carolina, and Monroe County, Florida Kathryn Foster*, Kathryn Foster, James Collins, Miyuki Hino, Ryan McCune, Katherine Anarde,

Coastal floods outside of tropical cyclones have become more common across the United States. These floods are driven by multiple localized factors beyond sea level rise, complicating efforts to define and predict flooding regimes, yet they result in significant costs for affected communities. Consequently, residents and risk managers grapple with prioritizing in situ adaptation or managed retreat. Recent research indicates that rural U.S. communities experience distinct coastal flood impacts, yet residents want to remain despite limited capacity for adaptation. Flooding regimes change gradually, making it hard to understand how attitudes and actions evolve in response. Additionally, past studies of coastal flooding have not explicitly compared rural sites by coastal flood frequency. In an era of rising coastal flooding and managed retreat, we ask, how do rural residents view their choice to stay, adapt, or relocate? How do these choices relate to flood frequency and severity? How are these views shaped by local and state coastal adaptation policies?

We compare two U.S rural coastal sites experiencing chronic floods: eastern Carteret County, North Carolina, and Monroe County, Florida. Both are non-urban shoreline areas experiencing amenity-driven development. Floods are more frequent in Monroe, illustrating challenges Carteret will face with sea-level rise. Environmental policy also varies, with the State of Florida withdrawing from and Carteret County increasing investment in residential adaptation. Through 50 semi-structured in-depth interviews with residents and local experts collected from 2024 to 2026, we compare adaptation and (im)mobility attitudes and actions in relation to chronic flooding. Preliminary results suggest that while some residents and officials see moving from these areas as inevitable, many are determined to stay. Signals about future government investment influence (im)mobility aspirations even without explicit plans for managed retreat.