Abstract Search Find and explore abstracts from the RSS Annual Meeting

International Development and Studies

What Experts Agree On: A Cross-National Delphi Consensus on Climate-Smart Cocoa Adoption Determinants Anjorin Adeyemi*, Anjorin Adeyemi, Zhihong Xu, Gary Wingenbach, Kim Dooley, Andrew Natsios,

Despite a growing body of empirical work on climate-smart cocoa (CSC), the field lacks agreement on which findings hold across production contexts, and which are products of local conditions (Akrofi-Atitianti et al., 2018; Ameyaw et al., 2018). This study addressed that gap through a two-round modified Delphi process designed to establish structured cross-national expert consensus across four domains: perceived adverse effects of climate change on cocoa production, determinants of those perceptions, globally recognized CSC practices, and determinants of CSC adoption. Twenty-eight experts from Ghana, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Colombia evaluated 75 items in Round One and 80 in Round Two, drawn from the authors’ prior systematic review of 60 empirical studies. A 75% agreement threshold defined consensus; Friedman tests assessed within-domain prioritization, and Kendall’s W tracked convergence across rounds. Fifty-seven items reached consensus. Rainfall variability (100%) and temperature increase (92.8%) consistently led climate impact rankings. Access to extension services and farmer training dominated both the perception and adoption determinant domains across rounds. Pest management, pruning, soil fertility improvement, and disease management formed the most stable CSC practice cluster, sustaining agreement above 92% in both rounds. Demographic variables, including gender and household size, failed to reach consensus in any domain, consistent with their characterization as context-contingent moderators rather than universal adoption predictors (Ajzen, 1991). Concordance improved in three of four domains by Round Two. The findings position institutional capacity and environmental observability as jointly necessary conditions for CSC adoption, and provide a cross-nationally validated empirical baseline for researchers designing primary studies and policymakers prioritizing interventions across major cocoa-producing regions.