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Heat Exposure and Rural–Urban Disparities in Chronic Kidney Disease Prevalence in the United States, 2009–2021
Abstract
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been emerging as a pressing global epidemic in the context of a warming planet. It affects both developing and developed countries and exacerbates health inequality by disproportionately burdening older adults and agricultural workers in rural regions. Nevertheless, examinations of the relationship between CKD prevalence and rising temperatures along with sociodemographic factors in the US remain limited. Through compiling a longitudinal dataset of CKD prevalence from 2009 to 2021 and linking it to temperatures and sociodemographic characteristics at the county level, we investigated the heterogeneous impacts of temperature and sociodemographic factors on CKD prevalence. The results suggest that rising temperatures significantly increased CKD prevalence at the county level in the US, and that temperature exposure tended to have a long-lasting effect, with lagged exposures contributing to increased risk. However, unlike the CKD patterns reported in previous research from most developing countries, rural counties experienced lower CKD prevalence while urban counties experienced a penalty in terms of CKD prevalence. This study highlights the context-specific nature of environment-health interactions and provides evidence to inform targeted interventions and adaptation strategies in the US.
